Did you know that the Riksbank, the Swedish central bank, decided last year to burn 2.6 million kronor (Swedish currency) in cash that was found in a deceased person’s estate? That the central bank confiscated half a million kronor from a 95-year-old woman? That bank customers - individuals and businesses - are being de-platformed from banking services after trading in cryptocurrencies, that a major bank closed the account of a Swedish journalist last year, or that British banks are denying their customers the ability to transfer their own money to cryptocurrency exchanges?

“What is going on!?” my three-year-old exlaimed at the breakfast table the other day. And it’s indeed a valid question. Energy and food prices have been skyrocketing, yet another epidemic (monkeypox) has recently appeared to be spreading - at least it was declared a global emergency this past summer, and the world’s central bankers are changing their minds so quickly one suspects that they might soon land on their buttocks (perhaps in butter).

Why is inflation so high, and what does the powers that be plan to do about it? Let’s start our attempt at answering this by looking at the supply side, where we have seen massive amounts of negative shocks to the supply side in recent years. In particular since the discovery of the COVID-19 virus.

Well, of course a recession is looming. In contrast to the PhD’s in charge, the US yield curve (i.e. the difference between the 2y yield and the 10y yield on US Treasury bonds) has a fairly long history of being predictive of economic recessions. Most if not all mainstream economists will disagree with this conclusion.