The mathematics of trust (in the media)

A recent wedding celebration for Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Åkesson resulted in controversy, as one of the guests in attendance was reportedly linked to organized crime. Following this “wedding scandal”, a columnist noted that the party’s voters had not been significantly affected. Instead of a decrease in trust - which one might have expected - 10% of them stated that their confidence in the party had actually increased. “Over the years, the Sweden Democrats have surprisingly emerged unscathed from their numerous scandals,” she wrote. But is this really so surprising?

In mathematics, a probability is expressed as the likelihood of something occurring given one or more conditions. For example, one can express a probability as “the likelihood that a certain stock will rise in price, given that the company has presented a positive quarterly report.” In this case, the company’s quarterly report is the basis for the assessment. If we add more information, such as the company’s strong market position and a large order from an important customer, the probability increases further. The more information we have to go on, the more precise we can be in our assessment.

From this perspective, the Sweden Democrats’ “numerous scandals” should lead to a more negative assessment of the party. But this perspective omits something important.

A couple of years ago, the term “gaslighting” was chosen as the word of the year in the US. The term comes from a 1944 film of the same name and refers to a type of psychological manipulation, as applied to the lovely Ingrid Bergman. Today, the term is used in politics, for example, when a large group of people is misled to achieve political goals. The techniques used can be very effective but have a limitation. When the target becomes aware of what is happening, everything changes. Then the target becomes vigilant and views all new information with great suspicion.

The Sweden Democrats’ “numerous scandals” should lead to a more negative assessment of the party. But if SD voters to a greater extent than others believe that the source of the information is unreliable, for example, by omitting information or adding unnecessary information, the conclusion is different. The Swedish SOM survey shows that these voters have lower trust in journalists and also lower confidence in the objectivity of the news. Like a victim of gaslighting, they view negative reporting with suspicion. The arguments can no longer get through. A kind of immunity has developed.

In the US, trust in the media is at an all-time low. So when American media writes that “Trump speaks like Hitler, Stalin, and Mussolini,” that his idea of deporting illegal immigrants would cost hundreds of billions of dollars, or gets worked up over his soda consumption, the consequence is likely to be similar to here at home.

The mathematics of trust says that reporting will fall flat when the population becomes suspicious of the media. Or as the Swedish columnist put it: like water off a duck’s back.

Cover image: Ingrid Bergman 1946. RKO Radio Pictures - eBay, Public Domain, Wikimedia Commons