Economics

Order from Chaos

Order from Chaos

Henry Kissinger, an experienced statesman and diplomat, may have put it best: that “Trump may be one of those figures in history who appears from time to time to mark the end of an era and to force it to give up its old pretences”.

On Car Seats and Censorship

On Car Seats and Censorship

Fertility rates in Western countries have fallen to historically low levels in recent years - not a single Western country had a fertility rate above the replacement rate in 2023. The replacement rate being 2.1 children per woman. The driving forces are said to be several, such as better pension systems, increased demands for education, more women in the workforce, the fiat monetary system, and so on. However, it can be argued that the driving forces are rather few. Perhaps many can be summarized with the concept of “unpredictable consequences”. For who were those who, in their time, predicted that a more generous pension system, more years in school, or more women in the workforce would lead to a veritable collapse in birth rates?

The Peacock's Feathers: A Guide to Real News

The Peacock's Feathers: A Guide to Real News

When the spin is too smooth, is it really news? A look at the complex media landscape and the importance of costly signaling in evaluating information.

What if the Green Facts Don't Add Up?

What if the Green Facts Don't Add Up?

Beneath the green rhetoric: A worrying picture is emerging, revealing that the EU’s green agenda may be stifling economic growth, compromising security, and undermining preparedness. Is the EU really in a position to afford the luxury of prioritising green ideals over the essential needs of its citizens’ economic well-being and national security?

No Green Future without Economic Prosperity

No Green Future without Economic Prosperity

Germany, the EU’s largest economy, is once again forced to bear the label “Europe’s sick man”. The economic news makes for dismal reading. Industrial production has been trending downward for a long time. Energy-intensive production has decreased by as much as 20% in just a few years. Volkswagen is closing factories. Thyssenkrupp is laying off employees and more than three million pensioners are at risk of poverty according to a study.

The Multi-Headed Elites

The Multi-Headed Elites

This piece was published April 22, 2024 at Brownstone Institute. It was co-written with Tuomas Malinen, CEO and the Chief Economist of GnS Economics.

The Fed Pill

The Fed Pill

In the iconic scene from the 1999 film The Matrix, the protagonist Neo is presented with a choice between two pills - the red pill, which reveals true reality, or the blue pill, which allows him to remain in his mundane existence, unaware of the choice he has made. This metaphor has become a popular trope on social media over the past decade, with the term “pill” being used to describe a sudden realization or enlightenment. The term is often used in the context of learning or gaining knowledge, and it is meant to evoke the idea of a “magic pill” that can instantly change one’s understanding or perspective on a subject.

Centralisation is part of the problem

Centralisation is part of the problem

Claims that we need greater centralisation, more EU, or more globalisation are prevalent across the usual media channels. The climate crisis, environmental destruction, pandemics, the AI-threat, yes, everything will apparently be solved if a little more global coordination, governance and leadership can be brought about.

Monetary Poverty Policy

Monetary Poverty Policy

Why is inflation so high, and what does the powers that be plan to do about it? Let’s start our attempt at answering this by looking at the supply side, where we have seen massive amounts of negative shocks to the supply side in recent years. In particular since the discovery of the COVID-19 virus.

Well, of course a recession is looming

Well, of course a recession is looming

Well, of course a recession is looming.

In contrast to the PhD’s in charge, the US yield curve (i.e. the difference between the 2y yield and the 10y yield on US Treasury bonds) has a fairly long history of being predictive of economic recessions. Most if not all mainstream economists will disagree with this conclusion. That doesn’t mean that you should.

Is the US about to experience a new 'Great Disorder'?

Is the US about to experience a new 'Great Disorder'?

US inflation has recently been surging and is now “trotting”. From Gerald Feldman’s description of Germany’s inflationary episode a century ago, one is struck by many similarities with today…